DHM Research regularly checks in with Oregonians about the economy and their personal financial situations. We asked again in June 2024, which was an opportune time because, historically, how people feel about the economy in the summer before an election has been strongly predictive of election outcomes.
Democrats and Republicans will both have reasons for optimism and worry with these results. Democrats can be happy there is a modest improvement in how Oregonians rate economic conditions and that most say their personal finances are in good shape. Republicans will see opportunities in the fact that a majority of Oregonians continue to think the state’s economic conditions are poor and in that the cost of groceries and housing are driving people’s perceptions.
Oregonians continue to say the state’s economic conditions are poor, but negativity has softened.
51% of Oregonians rate Oregon’s economic conditions as poor compared to 43% who say they are in good shape. This is an improvement from March 2023, when 60% rated the state’s economic condition as poor.
Opinions about economic conditions are divided by partisanship, with Democrats much more positive than Republicans and non-affiliated/third-party voters. 64% of Democrats rate Oregon’s economic conditions as good versus 25% of Republicans and 38% of NAV/others.
The cost of housing and groceries are the most important factors in how Oregonians rate the state’s economy.
The survey presented respondents a list of factors that may shape how they rate economic conditions in Oregon. They then selected the three they thought were the most important.
73% named housing costs and 56% identified the cost of groceries as top factors in how they rate the economy. Housing costs came up most often across all demographic groups, including by area of the state, age, income, and political party.
Less important factors include how the stock market is doing (2%), interest rates (7%), and the cost of gasoline (30%). Just 9% of Oregonians said who is president affected their view of Oregon’s economy; however, it’s clear from numerous other surveys, such as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, that people’s view of the economy are quite influenced by politics and partisanship.
There is some variation across demographic groups, but by and large, Oregonians of all kinds rate economic conditions by using a similar set of factors.
Oregonians rate their personal finances better than the state’s economic condition.
Most (54%) Oregonians report that their personal finances are in good condition, which is 11 points higher than their ratings of the state’s conditions. This is down 2 points since December 2023; however, the percentage who rate their current finances as very good increased from 5% to 9%
Oregonians’ ratings of their finances are less sensitive to partisanship than their ratings of the state’s economic conditions. 62% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans rate their current finances as good, a 13-point difference. In comparison, there is a 39-point gap between Democrats and Republicans on their ratings of the state’s economy.
Oregonians feel that workers are losing power to employers.
The COVID pandemic shook up the workforce. In the early months, as the economy reopened, many businesses faced labor shortages while many workers changed jobs. It was a time when many felt that workers had more bargaining power than employers. Now, however, it is the reverse.
In August 2022—the first time DHM asked this question—43% of Oregonians felt workers had more power in the job market, while 39% thought employers had more power, a 4-point advantage for workers. Now, just 21% think that workers have more power compared to 67% who think employers do, a 46-point advantage for employers.
The gap is even greater among Oregonians in the workforce. Of Oregonians who are currently working, 20% say workers have more power versus 74% who say employers, a 54-point difference.
It’s also notable that the differences are even greater among Oregonians in higher income households than those with lower incomes.
Oregonians still believe that foreign trade is more of an opportunity than a threat to economic growth.
Given the choice, 54% of Oregonians believe that foreign trade is more of an opportunity for economic growth versus 29% who think it is more of a threat. 17% are unsure.
The share of Oregonians who think foreign trade is an opportunity held steady from April 2023, when DHM last asked this question (56%). However, it is down from 68% in December 2019.
There are notable differences in opinion about this by education and income, with more educated and higher-income Oregonians more likely to see foreign trade as an opportunity. 48% of those with a high school degree say it is an opportunity, compared to 63% of those with a college degree. Likewise, 48% of those with household incomes less than $50k think it is an opportunity compared to 60-67% of those with incomes above $100k.
Important differences also exist by party. Democrats (61%) and NAV/others (57%) are more likely to believe that foreign trade is an opportunity than Republicans (40%).
Across the state there are differences, too. Residents in the Portland metro area (63%) and Willamette Valley (54%) are the most likely to think foreign trade is an opportunity compared to those in the rest of the state (41%).